Broaden

Published On: April 28, 2026

Written by: Ben Atwater and Matt Malick

Investment success rewards the patient, those who can ignore the noise and focus on the long-term. For these reasons, we have long emphasized simplicity and transparency in our investment philosophy because we believe these characteristics encourage stick-to-itiveness.

Today, two distinct forces are challenging investors. They are geopolitical fragmentation and the technological upheaval of Artificial Intelligence. These major trends are already reshaping the probability of outcomes for every business on the planet.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently projected global growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026. This slowdown stems directly from “geopolitical fragmentation.”

IMF data shows that wartime booms are especially costly; national debt typically jumps by fourteen percentage points within three years of a conflict’s start. This comes at a time of already historically disproportionate debt levels.

When nations prioritize defense and supply-chain security over trade efficiency, companies must make large and difficult adjustments to their operations, some more successfully than others. A single tariff change or a blocked shipping lane can shift a company’s profitability overnight, positively or negatively.

Diversified investment management serves as the only logical defense against these binary risks.

As Warren Buffett observed, “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.” In today’s world, no one can predict the next geopolitical shock with certainty.

Our role is to provide the temperament and the structure to ensure your financial future does not hinge as much on concentrated bets, but on sufficient diversification given the uncertain and unpredictable geopolitical upheavals that are on the upswing.

Nationalism and its cousin, conflict, are not the only major forces now at work.

Artificial Intelligence is fundamentally re-wiring corporate productivity, as it seems likely to fundamentally re-wire humanity.

Hyperscale technology firms plan to spend over $602 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone, a 36% increase year-over-year. While this capital injection fuels growth, it also creates a wider “dispersion” of returns.

Morgan Stanley research reveals that while 21% of S&P 500 companies now report AI benefits, the financial results remain uneven. Only 39% of those companies currently report a significant impact on their bottom line.

Maintaining and even increasing diversification is a good strategy now because it allows us to capture the broad productivity gains that AI will unleash. One early study suggests AI can boost worker performance by 14% to 34%, so companies that appropriately leverage technology, no matter what their industry, stand to gain. But, of course, it is impossible to know who will excel with AI and who will fall behind.

John Bogle warned that “The greatest enemies to the investor are expenses and emotions.” This is why we are adding diversification, all the while maintaining the tax-efficient management we have long championed.

Studies consistently show that the most significant value an advisor adds is not through picking “winners,” but through behavioral coaching and tax-smart planning.

In fact, the Russell Investments 2025 “Value of an Advisor” study estimates that professional guidance can add 4.87% annual value to a client’s outcome. Of that, behavioral coaching, keeping you on track in volatile markets, accounts for a sizable portion of the “Advisor’s Alpha.” Furthermore, tax-savvy planning and investing (such as tax-loss harvesting and efficient asset location) ensures you keep more of what you earn. We believe that our present efforts to broaden our holdings and increase our diversification will continue to reinforce our tenants of staying invested for the long term through all cycles, while managing tax liability.

As Barton Biggs observed, “The investment process is not an exact science, but a struggle to stay rational.” We are here to help overcome that struggle. By increasing diversification and focusing on tax efficiency, we reduce your exposure to unique company, sector, and country risk while maximizing your after-tax returns. In a fragmented and rapidly changing world, this rational, disciplined approach is the most effective tool we have.

Disclosure: Regulators could view this communication as marketing / advertising. This commentary is written by Ben Atwater and Matt Malick and reflects only their opinions and viewpoints. Atwater Malick, LLC sources facts, figures, quotations, etc. from what they believe are reliable sources, but they cannot guarantee their reliability. In addition, this essay makes no claims as to investment performance – past, present, or future. For additional important disclosures, please click here.